Netherlands Elections: Key Players and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most conservative administration in recent memory with a more centrist and pragmatic coalition during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the breakdown of the previous administration in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has lived under police protection for two decades, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to achieve majority status. No single party ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the start of the millennium, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even sure of representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating the conservative party.