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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|