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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.