Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine â a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister â a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal â and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us â for our nation â the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region â including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines â a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power â and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.